The Atlantic on the edge: Where is the AMOC going and where has it come from?

Montag 13.07.2026, 11:00 → 12:00 Europe/Berlin

5-1.214 - PAZIFIK / PACIFIC- Rechte Seite - Großer, unterteilbarer Konferenzraum (GEOMAR - Standort Ostufer / GEOMAR - East Shore)

Speaker: Prof. Gerard McCarthy. Department of Geography at Maynooth University, Ireland

Hybrid  -  online via 

https://geomar.webex.com/geomar-en/j.php?MTID=m6f187b689fccd196c05d249d28f6d0d8

Abstract:

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a central role in Earth's climate system through its transport of heat, freshwater, carbon, and nutrients. Yet its recent evolution and future trajectory remain subjects of intense scientific and societal interest. This presentation examines what observations reveal about AMOC variability and change, how these observations can be extended into the past through reconstruction approaches, and what they imply for future projections.

Since 2004, continuous measurements from the RAPID observing system at 26°N have transformed our understanding of AMOC variability, revealing substantial fluctuations across timescales from days to decades. Recent analyses highlight the importance of distinguishing long-term signals from short-term noise when assessing trends and change, highlighting the challenges of reconciling evidence across different timescales and methodologies.

These observational perspectives provide context for evaluating climate model projections, which consistently project a weakening AMOC under continued greenhouse gas forcing. However, important questions remain regarding model fidelity, particularly given their mixed success in reproducing historical AMOC evolution. 

By bringing together evidence from sustained observations, observational reconstructions, proxy records and model simulations, this talk will highlight the need for the ongoing AMOC in Focus ‘mini-IPCC for AMOC’ that is ongoing to build consensus on the present and  future of Atlantic circulation.